Comments on: The False Mantras of 2009 http://youngandinvested.com/markets-and-economy/the-false-mantras-of-2009/ THE hub for finance and investing insights from the new generation. Sun, 13 Jun 2010 22:30:47 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: The New Mantras for 2010 | Young and Invested http://youngandinvested.com/markets-and-economy/the-false-mantras-of-2009/comment-page-1/#comment-827 The New Mantras for 2010 | Young and Invested Wed, 06 Jan 2010 08:24:35 +0000 http://youngandinvested.com/?p=664#comment-827 [...] here, you might want to subscribe to the RSS feed for updates on this topic.Powered by WP Greet BoxJust as in 2009, in the new year, we’ve had a flood of predictions on what the major trends, movements and [...] [...] here, you might want to subscribe to the RSS feed for updates on this topic.Powered by WP Greet BoxJust as in 2009, in the new year, we’ve had a flood of predictions on what the major trends, movements and [...]

]]> By: Shishir Nigam http://youngandinvested.com/markets-and-economy/the-false-mantras-of-2009/comment-page-1/#comment-808 Shishir Nigam Sun, 03 Jan 2010 15:37:47 +0000 http://youngandinvested.com/?p=664#comment-808 Robert, thanks for your comment. I think we're in a market where one can find an economic figure to support every possible argument and theory. And that just goes to explain the degree of ambivalence out there on what's REALLY happening. What's interesting is that this year might have been one of the few situations where every person on the street called themselves a "contrarian". Nearly everyone doubted the solidity of the equity rally because of the disconnect with fundamentals...and so just because they opposed the direction of the market, they were "contrarian". In fact, the REAL contrarian would be going against the consensus amongst investors...which was that the rally had no legs, when it actually did. Robert, thanks for your comment.

I think we’re in a market where one can find an economic figure to support every possible argument and theory. And that just goes to explain the degree of ambivalence out there on what’s REALLY happening.

What’s interesting is that this year might have been one of the few situations where every person on the street called themselves a “contrarian”. Nearly everyone doubted the solidity of the equity rally because of the disconnect with fundamentals…and so just because they opposed the direction of the market, they were “contrarian”. In fact, the REAL contrarian would be going against the consensus amongst investors…which was that the rally had no legs, when it actually did.

]]> By: Robert Eberenz http://youngandinvested.com/markets-and-economy/the-false-mantras-of-2009/comment-page-1/#comment-805 Robert Eberenz Sat, 02 Jan 2010 05:34:54 +0000 http://youngandinvested.com/?p=664#comment-805 Shishir, I must agree that the post is well proposed, and some of the mantras have been sold short so to speak, but the fact still remains that there are many players in this market who have tight stops on their profits if the milk begins to sour. Also, the savings rate is low, but the inverse argument would site consumer credit numbers instead. I would argue that savings are low because essential spending is eating away at income and only allowing consumers to save around 5%, while the consumer credit numbers are falling through records every month. Also, pulling up a chart of the 10-year Treasury will easily reveal a bottoming pattern which has occurred on mere whispers of Fed Funds hikes six months out. Public debt yields were hovering at 30 year lows due to turbo charged QE, but the auctions in medium to long term T-bonds will show that bid to cover ratios are now bucking the range of stability you refer to in your piece. For the sake of the country I hope I am wrong, but my analysis, intuition, and portfolio argue otherwise. Shishir, I must agree that the post is well proposed, and some of the mantras have been sold short so to speak, but the fact still remains that there are many players in this market who have tight stops on their profits if the milk begins to sour. Also, the savings rate is low, but the inverse argument would site consumer credit numbers instead. I would argue that savings are low because essential spending is eating away at income and only allowing consumers to save around 5%, while the consumer credit numbers are falling through records every month. Also, pulling up a chart of the 10-year Treasury will easily reveal a bottoming pattern which has occurred on mere whispers of Fed Funds hikes six months out. Public debt yields were hovering at 30 year lows due to turbo charged QE, but the auctions in medium to long term T-bonds will show that bid to cover ratios are now bucking the range of stability you refer to in your piece.

For the sake of the country I hope I am wrong, but my analysis, intuition, and portfolio argue otherwise.

]]> By: Daniel Eskin http://youngandinvested.com/markets-and-economy/the-false-mantras-of-2009/comment-page-1/#comment-803 Daniel Eskin Fri, 01 Jan 2010 18:35:56 +0000 http://youngandinvested.com/?p=664#comment-803 Good article Shishir. Makes you think about the time-spans of a lot of these predictions. The first two, for example, volumes returning and a correction occuring, I was kind of siding as well, but now I wonder whether it was more appropriate as a longer-term prediction for 2010. Peter Schiff (dubbed "Dr. Doom") is definitely one who has been predicting his theories already occuring, so I know he would have loved to see some of these in fruition. Thanks for sharing and looking forward to the 2010 segment :) Good article Shishir. Makes you think about the time-spans of a lot of these predictions. The first two, for example, volumes returning and a correction occuring, I was kind of siding as well, but now I wonder whether it was more appropriate as a longer-term prediction for 2010. Peter Schiff (dubbed “Dr. Doom”) is definitely one who has been predicting his theories already occuring, so I know he would have loved to see some of these in fruition. Thanks for sharing and looking forward to the 2010 segment :)

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